What?
Odds on that God exists, says scientist
A scientist has calculated that there is a 67% chance that God exists.
Dr Stephen Unwin has used a 200-year-old formula to calculate the probability of the existence of an omnipotent being. Bayes’ Theory is usually used to work out the likelihood of events, such as nuclear power failure, by balancing the various factors that could affect a situation.
The Manchester University graduate, who now works as a risk assessor in Ohio, said the theory starts from the assumption that God has a 50/50 chance of existing, and then factors in the evidence both for and against the notion of a higher being.
Factors that were considered included recognition of goodness, which Dr Unwin said makes the existence of God more likely, countered by things like the existence of natural evil – including earthquakes and cancer.
The unusual workings – which even take into account the existence of miracles – are set out in his new book, which includes a spreadsheet of the data used so that anyone can make the calculation themselves should they doubt its validity. The book, The Probability of God: A simple calculation that proves the ultimate truth, will be published later this month.
This is mind bogglingly stupid. Earthquakes and cancer disprove God, while “goodness” proves it? What is this guy smoking?
UPDATE: Calpundit weighs in as well.
It’s a novel concept, I’m sure, but this guy is essentially arguing from a Creationist stance. Strict duality, blah blah blah. Utter shit.
And sometimes I wonder why I get headaches.
I stubbed my toe.. .005% to the God doesn’t exist side. Oh wait, my mail came on time today.. .006% to the God does exist side. *shakes his head and rolls his eyes*
I’m sure the calculations work relatively well for predicting things like my mail will be on time (weather sucks -2, mailman has 4 wheel drive +3) but using it to calculate other things is just absurd and far beyond the scope of the principal (atmosphere was created by aliens.. air is clear +1, tornados destroy things +8.. therefore aliens created the atmosphere!). It is hard to be a total pacifist when there are so many stupid people in the world that need to be savagely beaten by Rinzai monks with bamboo staffs.
Well, if that’s true, Vietnamese Hot & Sour soup is an easy +12% on God’s existence. Thai Red Curry is another +10%. The fact that the local Lebanese restaurant only makes perfect falafel sandwiches half the time means that God gets a wash on those …
Aside from being extremely silly, the problem with the Bayesian analysis is the same one with Pascal’s Wager: even if you assume the truth of the argument, it doesn’t get you where most theists want which is to a proof of YHWH (Yahweh, Jehovah, Tetragrammaton, etc) but rather proof of a Creator, who could be Balder, Paan Khu, Kronos, Ba’al or Cthulu, or some sort of psychotic Star Trek toga-wearing Alien type being who’s growing us for food. Doesn’t even get you to the question of whether it is a theistic god or a Demiurge or a deist God or one that is exactly like Jehovah (white beard, greek toga, etc) but has a passionate hate on for Presbyterians.
It’s hardly a binary yes/no question.
wow…
i’m student of Multimedia University. it’s my seccond year in uni and i just wondered that someone calculated the probability of existing god…
i was just looking for probability of existing alien in the world and suddenly i found this page…
i need to know more and more about this, but i’m sure my knowledge in probability is not enough. so could u help me with the easier stuff or easier book to underestand that calculate the probability of existing god? i’m just interested in calculation…
anyway, thanks for information,
and thanks god for the knowledge that make the life enjoyable…